The Verdict
Tobi Lutke has returned +77.2% vs S&P +26.0% over matched windows (57% win rate across 9 picks).
The Report Card
Every pick at a glance. Green = beat S&P. Red = didn't.
Tobi Lutke's Stock Recommendations, Graded
- SHOP · BUY · Mar 14, 2026
Shopify Inc.
Return -7.7% vs S&P -3.1%
- SHOP · BUY · Feb 16, 2026
Shopify Inc.
Return +2.9% vs S&P -5.0%
- SHOP · BUY · Jan 26, 2026
Shopify Inc.
Return -14.3% vs S&P -6.4%
- SHOP · BUY · Sep 25, 2025
Shopify Inc.
Return -18.6% vs S&P -1.4%
Tobi Lutke's Best and Worst Stock Picks
Best: SHOP (+253.4%) · Worst: SHOP (-18.6%).
Tobi Lutke's Full Track Record
| Action | Ticker | Date | Headline | Return | vs S&P |
|---|
| BUY | SHOP | | SHOP: Shopify Inc. — BUY Mar 2026Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) Upgraded to Strong-Buy at Piper Sandler | -7.7% | -4.7% |
| SELL | SHOP | | SHOP: Shopify Inc. — SELL Mar 2026Private Advisor Group LLC Sells 11,780 Shares of Shopify Inc. $SHOP | Pending | — |
| BUY | SHOP | | SHOP: Shopify Inc. — BUY Feb 2026Shopify Got Battered by the Software Panic. Wall Street Says to Buy. | +2.9% | +7.9% |
| BUY | SHOP | | SHOP: Shopify Inc. — BUY Jan 2026Shopify Stock Has Been Slammed in 2026. Is Now the Time to Buy This Growth Stock? | -14.3% | -8.0% |
| BUY | SHOP | | SHOP: Shopify Inc. — BUY Sep 2025Wall Street Analysts See Shopify (SHOP) as a Buy: Should You Invest? | -18.6% | -17.1% |
| BUY | SHOP | | SHOP: Shopify Inc. — BUY Aug 2025Benchmark Raises Shopify (SHOP) Price Target, Keeps Buy Rating | -16.9% | -17.8% |
| BUY | SHOP | | SHOP: Shopify Inc. — BUY Nov 2022Shopify CEO Buys $10 Million of Stock in the Open Market | +253.4% | +181.2% |
| BUY | COIN | | COIN: Coinbase — BUY Sep 2022Shopify CEO Bought More Coinbase Stock | +166.9% | +98.7% |
| BUY | COIN | | COIN: Coinbase — BUY Aug 2022Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke Bought Up Coinbase Stock | +166.7% | +113.0% |
FAQ
Is Tobi Lutke good at picking stocks?
Tobi Lutke has 9 scored picks with 57% win rate and +51.1% vs S&P.
What stocks does Tobi Lutke recommend?
SHOP, COIN.
What date range does this track record cover?
Aug 19, 2022 to Mar 14, 2026.
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