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MSFT PUBLIC EQUITY

MSFT Stock Predictions, Graded Against Reality

24 tracked public figures made calls on MSFT. Every pick graded against the S&P 500 over matching windows.

Total Calls
33
19 buy · 14 sell
Avg Buy Return
+3.0%
vs S&P +8.7%
Best Buy Call
+55.9%
Paul Pelosi · Jun 2022
Figures Tracked
24
public figures with MSFT calls

Is MSFT a Buy or Sell?

Public buy calls on Microsoft have underperformed the S&P 500. On average, public BUY calls on Microsoft underperformed the S&P 500 by +5.7%.
Worse than indexBeat the index

Microsoft Analyst Ratings, Tracked & Graded

33 calls
Who Signal Date Return S&P Same Window Source
PP
 BUY Jun 07, 2022 +55.9% +72.0% source ↗
CP
 SELL Oct 06, 2025 ✓ Correct — source ↗
BG
 SELL Nov 15, 2025 ✓ Correct — source ↗
BG
 SELL Dec 06, 2025 ✓ Correct — source ↗
SN
 BUY Dec 25, 2025 -17.6% -0.1% source ↗
YM
 BUY Nov 04, 2025 -17.4% +5.9% source ↗
DL
 BUY Nov 14, 2025 -16.7% +6.4% source ↗
BG
 BUY Jan 21, 2025 +19.1% +11.4% source ↗
JC
 BUY Mar 24, 2026 +14.0% +9.5% source ↗
DI
 BUY Dec 22, 2025 -12.4% +4.4% source ↗
PL
 BUY Feb 21, 2026 +11.7% +4.3% source ↗
CC
 BUY Dec 31, 2025 -12.2% +4.9% source ↗
ML
 BUY Jan 28, 2026 -11.8% +2.8% source ↗
SL
 SELL Jan 16, 2026 ✓ Correct — source ↗
AH
 BUY Feb 21, 2026 +10.5% +4.8% source ↗
SN
 BUY Feb 24, 2026 +9.2% +4.0% source ↗
PJ
 SELL Mar 25, 2024 ✓ Correct — source ↗
SA
 BUY Feb 27, 2026 +8.2% +4.2% source ↗
LW
 BUY Mar 13, 2026 +7.4% +8.0% source ↗
PT
 SELL Apr 13, 2026 ✗ Incorrect — source ↗
AB
 BUY Mar 12, 2026 +5.7% +7.4% source ↗
NP
 SELL Jun 06, 2022 ✗ Incorrect — source ↗
BG
 SELL Feb 20, 2026 ✗ Incorrect — source ↗
DK
 SELL Feb 25, 2026 ✗ Incorrect — source ↗
MG
 BUY Feb 07, 2026 +2.7% +3.1% source ↗
SD
 SELL Feb 05, 2026 ✗ Incorrect — source ↗
PT
 SELL Feb 26, 2026 ✗ Incorrect — source ↗
SN
 SELL Feb 26, 2026 ✗ Incorrect — source ↗
AH
 BUY Jan 29, 2026 -2.0% +3.0% source ↗
MB
 SELL Mar 16, 2026 ✓ Correct — source ↗
MB
 BUY Apr 24, 2026 +0.1% +0.2% source ↗
BQ
 BUY Mar 23, 2026 — — source ↗
BG
 SELL Dec 12, 2024 ✓ Correct — source ↗

Who's Predicting Microsoft Stock?

24 figures
Bill Gates
5 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: +7.6%
Philippe Laffont
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: +7.4%
Jim Cramer
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: +4.5%
Sam Altman
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: +3.9%
Andreas Halvorsen
2 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: +0.3%
Michael Burry
2 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -0.1%
Mario Gabelli
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -0.3%
Liang Wenfeng
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -0.6%
Ana Botin
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -1.7%
Satya Nadella
3 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -6.2%
Melissa Lee
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -14.6%
Paul Pelosi
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -16.1%
Dan Ives
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -16.8%
Chase Coleman
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -17.0%
Dan Loeb
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -23.2%
Yung-Yu Ma
1 calls on MSFT
Avg buy alpha: -23.3%
Peter Thiel
2 calls on MSFT
Sell accuracy: 0/2
Becky Quick
1 calls on MSFT
No scored buys yet

Microsoft Stock Prediction Track Records

GotReceipts tracks public buy and sell signals for Microsoft (MSFT) and measures outcomes over matched windows. For this ticker model, performance vs the S&P 500 is based on BUY/ADD calls only.

SELL/REDUCE calls are graded directionally and shown as Correct, Incorrect, or Pending. That way, you can quickly see whether following public buy calls added value versus simply holding the index.

Do MSFT stock predictions beat the S&P 500?

No. Across 18 scored BUY/ADD calls, average return is +3.0% versus +8.7% for the S&P 500, for -5.7% alpha.

Who has the best track record predicting Microsoft?

Bill Gates currently ranks #1 on MSFT, with +19.1% average buy return versus +11.4% for the S&P 500 (+7.6% alpha) across 1 scored buy calls.

Is MSFT overvalued or undervalued?

Public prediction track records currently lean cautious on MSFT: buy calls have underperformed the index by +5.7% on average.

Should I follow analyst ratings on MSFT?

Use analyst and public-figure calls as one input, not a standalone signal. GotReceipts shows historical outcomes versus the S&P 500 so you can judge signal quality before acting.